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The Hotel End / Cobblers Corner / Re: Summer 2021 Transfer Window
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on: August 01, 2021, 11:27:36 am
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Recent tweet from journalist Alan Nixon:
“Hull. Trying to push out Jordan Flores. Already on loan at Northampton but want full time exit to free a space in squad under their EFL regulations and restrictions.”
I don’t really understand this? I thought that if a player was out on loan then they did not count towards a club’s registration limit?
If that is the case however can we see Flores staying here on a permanent deal? I’d imagine we are paying something like half of his wages currently. Being forced to suddenly pay more doesn’t seem all that appealing!
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42
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The Hotel End / Cobblers Corner / Re: Pre-Season Friendlies
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on: July 31, 2021, 19:31:45 pm
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On the evidence that I've seen Flores is the best placed to fulfil that role although there's a rumour on twitter that he might be recalled by Hull.
That would be a real sh1tter right before the start of the season! How legit did the rumour source seem?
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43
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The Hotel End / Cobblers Corner / Re: Summer 2021 Transfer Window
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on: July 30, 2021, 18:03:38 pm
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Chuckwuemeka looks like he can play on the wing 😃
In an attacking three as a wide forward yes, but as a winger in our probable 442 system I don’t think so. Don’t think he will get through the work needed in the same way as the three wingers we have will.
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44
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The Hotel End / Cobblers Corner / Re: Summer 2021 Transfer Window
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on: July 30, 2021, 17:15:45 pm
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Think the squad is about finished, so any additions now will be a bonus. Reckon we’ll be OK.
I think we’re probably nearly there but I’m a little concerned that we need another winger. Currently we have Pinnock, Hoskins and Connolly. Surely at least one more is needed to stop those lads from getting fatigued throughout the season? Unless Brady is planning on using Cross fairly regularly there - he has looked decent enough playing wide in pre-season I suppose.
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45
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The Hotel End / Cobblers Corner / Re: Summer 2021 Transfer Window
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on: July 30, 2021, 16:22:35 pm
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Good permanent proven strikers (rather than untried youth loans or discarded clubless players) come to those that wait….. Brett pitman- Bristol rovers….. They’ll be no pissing about with loans and free transfers this time around. The club are finally accepting the situation and are about to do the long suffering fans proud. A change from the normal total lack of ambition and forward planning where our strikers have been concerned. Credit where credits due and all that Fair play Kelvin , you’ll get the fans back onside with this new found ambition and change of direction. The fans wanted a permanent proven quality goalscorer and you’re about to show them that you care for the club and want the best for it going forward I never doubted you A chubby, ageing, slow Brett Pittman would go down like lead balloon in our system. I can never tell if you’re on a windup or not?
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46
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The Hotel End / Cobblers Corner / Re: Summer 2021 Transfer Window
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on: July 28, 2021, 18:12:05 pm
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Read the season preview of Gabriel Sutton on Twitter for betvictor. He’s got us down for 14th.
Seems a harsh prediction to me! He also has Walsall in 6th which I think is being very generous to say the least, and I definitely disagree with Newport in 3rd after losing key players like Sheehan. The worst one in my eyes is Oldham in 24th - I'm not the biggest fan of Curle's style of play but he is solid enough managing in L2 and certainly isn't going to finish rock bottom!
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47
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The Hotel End / Cobblers Corner / Re: Summer 2021 Transfer Window
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on: July 27, 2021, 11:33:58 am
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I think some of the comments here have taken too much to heart that one of our youngsters doesn't want to be at the club. Some thoughts:
- Ivan Toney wasn't judged to be Championship level until aged 24. Caleb has 5 years until that age. Comparisons at age 18/19 are somewhat redundant as accurately judging the level of potential a player has, and what chance they have of reaching it is a very difficult skill which I doubt any of us on this site have.
- Caleb is at least 6'3, strong and quick, a good dribbler, technically strong, and is an aesthetically-pleasing forward. This is going to be ticking a lot of boxes for higher level clubs looking to take a low-value punt on a talented young player.
- A club like Spurs can afford to pay what would seem like a big sum to us (but would merely be a week's wages for one of their squad players) and give him time to play in their u23's squad. If in the off-chance Caleb has an unexpected rise to the first like Dele Alli then great, if more likely not then he probably stays in the u23's for 3 years until 22/23, and then is probably sold to recoup the initial fee paid, or perhaps more. Transfers like these to big clubs are like spread betting, the deals pose them very low risk and can net them a small continual flow of easy money (or perhaps better if things go well).
- I seem to be in the minority given the other comments but I think Caleb is already a really excellent player, and certainly not a "5th choice striker". As a forward he already has an excellent physique and great technical attributes aged just 19. Any in-game short comings can be corrected over time with coaching - and I'll add that I believe that JB and CC could address this themselves if Caleb does decide to sign.
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51
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The Hotel End / Cobblers Corner / Re: Summer 2021 Transfer Window
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on: July 22, 2021, 00:38:06 am
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This is supposed to be a thread about players coming to the Cobblers who we are supposed to support!!
Not a thread for morons to argue the toss between themselves!!
And yet you yourself have now started trading insults? See how certain people rile you up the wrong way?
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52
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The Hotel End / Cobblers Corner / Re: Summer 2021 Transfer Window
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on: July 21, 2021, 17:18:43 pm
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I still find O’cools recent post unnecessary long winded and perhaps your attention might be more useful to to remind him in the art of précis.
CJ asked about scouting (relevant to thread), and I shared what inside knowledge I had. You derailed the thread (again) by being a git (again). In the future, if you can't handle reading a long post, try scrolling past it.
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55
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The Hotel End / Cobblers Corner / Re: Summer 2021 Transfer Window
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on: July 19, 2021, 15:33:38 pm
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You could also consider Rotherham, Barnsley, Millwall and Peterborough as punching above their weight. In the lower Divisions certainly Cambridge, Cheltenham, Morecombe,Crewe, Fleetwood, Shrewsbury and even Lincoln. Lower still the list gets longer for instance Colchester who survive on poor league gates compared with NTFC. Most of these Clubs will find their true level soon enough. The standout Club is Stanley so perhaps their methods might be worth analysing. Perhaps it is their judicial use of loan players from nearby clubs?
Some good examples!
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56
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The Hotel End / Cobblers Corner / Re: Summer 2021 Transfer Window
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on: July 19, 2021, 15:32:54 pm
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Watched but not necessarily in person...so we could sign someone whose stats hold up but are from a different league (inferior, superior, or a different style of play generally, youth, overseas, and who looks the part on a screen without having a that confirmed by a real time scout? (I know I'm beginning to sound like Everbright). The gene pool from which to choose is massively bigger then but is it any better? What about agents bringing players to the attention of clubs, how much importance does that have today and how much of the statistical analysis is abandoned if the agent is doing his job effectively?! There's a whole industry that has been built up in order to successfully sign the correct players that's for sure. Wonder how many clubs have seen an improvement in their league positions over their historical average as a result of this though? Maybe just a case of keeping up with the Jonses. Evolve in order to send still.
There are a fair few clubs who have massively improved their standings and gone up leagues by using best practice processes - google is your best friend here! As for the Cobblers, I'd be very surprised if we are even remotely close to using best practice. From the sounds of Foyle's interviews upon joining it doesn't sound like he was awfully keen on identifying players using data. Doesn't necessarily mean that our new signings won't be good but it certainly doesn't tie up with the soundbites KT was making about a new approach. One last point on your comment "The gene pool from which to choose is massively bigger then but is it any better?" - I would argue that it doesn't necessarily make the pool of players all that much bigger. We would still only be considering players from divisions with similar/lower wage budgets and a similar/slightly lower standard, in the UK. That leaves League 1/League 2/National Leagues/SPL, the same as where we currently sign players from. What it DOES give you though is as I described in my previous post - the ability to use data points to make sure that the statistical counts of instances (random examples include: completed passes of a distance of over 30 yards, duels won in attacking third of the pitch, distance covered in final 10 mins of a game etc.) matches the scouts / managers' opinion of a player's strengths, thus removing elements of subjectivity. These are available on the tools as ranked against the other players in the league and some tools such as Smarterscout even have a weighting system based on league strength so they can be accurately compared to players in your own clubs division! Of course these could be used in the wrong way, but you have to trust in the professional's ability given that it is their career and they will have a far greater understanding of applied use of statistics in football recruitment than you or I; particularly as if they sign more duds than successes they are likely to be let go! At the end of the day the manager will almost always (depending on the structure at the club) have the final say on whether or not to try to sign a player but its the quality of the information fed to him from the analyst/scouting team that could make a difference between signing better players or not.
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57
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The Hotel End / Cobblers Corner / Re: Summer 2021 Transfer Window
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on: July 19, 2021, 14:03:02 pm
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All of this makes sense to me, but when you say you can load the dice in your favour, if player choice comes down to a computer algorithm with clubs wanting the top ranking player, doesn't it actually load the dice further in favour of the wealthiest clubs in each division? When you say superficial subjective analysis by scouts, it's most definitely subjective but provided the scout has done a proper job, why is it superficial? Statistical analysis of most of our recent recruits really is superficial to my mind because most these days seem to come from other leagues or no leagues at all. How can you reliably statistically analyse a player who has made less than 50 relevant league appearances and how is that any better than a scout who knows the game in a way most of us on here do not? Of Bungles 4 bulletin points, isn't 3 also by definition, a subjective analysis? I still think a good scout will see things a computer model will not and if the computer model has precious little relevant data to go on, that scouts opinion is probably a better gauge. By contrast if we were to sign the sort of player with a body of reliable data such as when we resigned Rico, would anyone really need statistics to decide if he was going to fit into any particular managers style of play?
The modern solution used by the most successful clubs isn't either data vs the scouts' eye - it's both. It's rare that "scouts" just watch games now (picture the sheepskin wearing bloke taking notes in the stands). The manager / head of football will tell the head of player recruitment the profile of what type of player they are wanting - say for example a centre back with the ability to carry the ball and pass accurately through the lines (e.g. in the mould of Harry Maguire), given the manager would like to be able to transition the ball better to forward players. The head of player recruitment would then work with the analyst/scouting/recruitment/whatever you would like to call them to figure out how to identify them. Given that its their career I'd imagine they're pretty adept at cutting through the noise of hundreds of data points (many are irrelevant) and finding some that can identify the right type of player for the manager. After that they would need to select appropriate leagues to find player data (i.e. leagues where players can be signed for reasonable fees/salaries. They would then shortlist a number and then decide which of them to watch in more detail. At first this would be done via player information databases / scouting tools such as Wyscout. These allow the (paid) users to watch whole games on demand. Pretty much every league that Cobblers might sign a player from will have virtually all its games uploaded to these databases so this allows them to get a very good understanding of a player. If I'm not mistaken you can actually focus the camera on a player too so you can watch how they move and react throughout a game also. With all this footage the analyst/scout can see patterns in a players general play and write a report on them, perhaps also including statistics to support their visual observations on them. After this a club might decide to watch a few games in person. If a player is out of contract this might be difficult, but given tools like Wyscout the necessity for this might depend on how fussy / old school a manager is. The key thing is that a player would never be signed on impressive stats alone. Those are often used to highlight a player, but a player is always watched as well!
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58
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The Hotel End / Cobblers Corner / Re: Summer 2021 Transfer Window
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on: July 16, 2021, 19:05:23 pm
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That’s great news. Hopefully he’ll sign tomorrow and we can get on with incomings.
I'm inclined to agree. The compensation package I believe is in part dependant on the size the salary offered by the previous club, and the amount of appearances that the player has made there - both of which should stand in good stead to receive a decent fee; well, as decent a fee as can be gotten through the injustice that is the FPPP system. With that fee, Smith's fee, and the saved salaries of the two, I would expect the club to make a big statement signing to bring in a very good forward for our level.
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59
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The Hotel End / Cobblers Corner / Re: Summer 2021 Transfer Window
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on: July 16, 2021, 12:52:33 pm
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Fair amount of hindsight creeping in here! I was merely trying to make the point on the 'here and now' situation! Not aware of suggesting to put in a bid. However apparently we did last summer! The two factors which influence most clubs is a) Financial restraints/repercussions and b) his injury record. The underlined is in my view a bit fanciful or at best ambiguous. As we appear to agree on the loan system(ref Morton) that effectively puts an end to discussion.
Fair enough, I’d thought that putting it in bold would make it pretty clear but perhaps I ought to have spelled it out! And yes, end to discussion
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60
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The Hotel End / Cobblers Corner / Re: Summer 2021 Transfer Window
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on: July 16, 2021, 00:56:42 am
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My point is that for example the situation reg Morton has changed since last Summer. What I cannot quite make out is why you and one or two others simply ignore the salient fact that Morton has had two bad injuries. So he has a question mark over his future. It will take a bold move by any club to fork out a handsome fee for Morton on top of his wages. For me go for a loan.
For goodness sake Evers! Regarding your first sentence, yes I am fully aware given I put “last summer” in bold in previous post to emphasise that this may have changed. You seem to be assuming that I have suggested that we ought to have put a bid in for him… I haven’t suggested this at all. Like you, I agree we should be looking to loan players of a similar profile to Morton - largely because I do not believe that we can afford to buy them. I’m happy to engage in interesting debates but I’m not sure where you’re coming from with this!
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