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Relegation Watch 20/21

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Author Topic: Relegation Watch 20/21  (Read 38662 times)
west stand oap
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« Reply #280 on: March 08, 2021, 12:17:34 pm »

The years I have listed show how many points the team in 20th place got. The point I was making was that in a number of seasons they would have still achieved 20th place with a lower points total (because of the difference in points achieved by 20th and 21st place teams)  and in 1 season with 5 fewer points. As stated an average of 48.8 points was needed over the 10 year period to finish in 20th place the fact that the average points achieved is higher is inconsequential.
This I why I compared our promotion winning season as we would still have won the division with 87 points although we got 99. Similarly Liverpool did not need 99 points to win the Premier League last season as they would still have won it with 82.
I see no problem in aiming for 50-51 points but I suspect we will achieve safety with a lower points total.
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« Reply #281 on: March 08, 2021, 12:48:38 pm »

The years I have listed show how many points the team in 20th place got. The point I was making was that in a number of seasons they would have still achieved 20th place with a lower points total (because of the difference in points achieved by 20th and 21st place teams)  and in 1 season with 5 fewer points. As stated an average of 48.8 points was needed over the 10 year period to finish in 20th place the fact that the average points achieved is higher is inconsequential.
This I why I compared our promotion winning season as we would still have won the division with 87 points although we got 99. Similarly Liverpool did not need 99 points to win the Premier League last season as they would still have won it with 82.
I see no problem in aiming for 50-51 points but I suspect we will achieve safety with a lower points total.

I'd stop using logic if I was you, you might hurt someone.
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Manwork04
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« Reply #282 on: March 08, 2021, 12:57:53 pm »

The years I have listed show how many points the team in 20th place got. The point I was making was that in a number of seasons they would have still achieved 20th place with a lower points total (because of the difference in points achieved by 20th and 21st place teams)  and in 1 season with 5 fewer points. As stated an average of 48.8 points was needed over the 10 year period to finish in 20th place the fact that the average points achieved is higher is inconsequential.
This I why I compared our promotion winning season as we would still have won the division with 87 points although we got 99. Similarly Liverpool did not need 99 points to win the Premier League last season as they would still have won it with 82.
I see no problem in aiming for 50-51 points but I suspect we will achieve safety with a lower points total.

Emmmm, the problem with trying to linearise something that is absolute is half the time youíll need more points and the other half you wonít need as many.
Looking at how close it is at the bottom and how just about any team can beat any other (boro vs Burton) for example Iíd say this season will be a higher than the mean average, time will tell.
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west stand oap
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« Reply #283 on: March 08, 2021, 19:56:18 pm »

To reach a target of 50 points from the remaining games Burton have to get 1.07 points a game, AFC Wimbledon 1.33, Cobblers 1.38, Bristol Rovers 1.43, Swindon 1.46, Wigan 1.54 and Rochdale 1.69. So 4 teams have to get higher returns than us. Obviously some teams will have easier run ins but there are teams who cannot beat other teams in the bottom 7 but thrash play off contenders.
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LovelyMilkyMilky
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« Reply #284 on: March 08, 2021, 20:04:49 pm »

The years I have listed show how many points the team in 20th place got. The point I was making was that in a number of seasons they would have still achieved 20th place with a lower points total (because of the difference in points achieved by 20th and 21st place teams)  and in 1 season with 5 fewer points. As stated an average of 48.8 points was needed over the 10 year period to finish in 20th place the fact that the average points achieved is higher is inconsequential.
This I why I compared our promotion winning season as we would still have won the division with 87 points although we got 99. Similarly Liverpool did not need 99 points to win the Premier League last season as they would still have won it with 82.
I see no problem in aiming for 50-51 points but I suspect we will achieve safety with a lower points total.

I suspect you are wrong.

Time will tell I suppose.

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Knockingonabit
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« Reply #285 on: March 09, 2021, 10:03:58 am »

I suspect you are correct west stand oap!
If the bottom 7 carry on as they have done so far Burton end up with 50 points, The Cobblers and Wimbledon with 45, Swindon and Bristol R  43, Wigan 42 and Rochdale 39.
Of course it won't work out like that but it will take some improvement from several of those involved to make 50 points the crucial figure.
My guess is somewhere around 47 should do it.
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LovelyMilkyMilky
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« Reply #286 on: March 09, 2021, 12:03:21 pm »

I suspect you are correct west stand oap!
If the bottom 7 carry on as they have done so far Burton end up with 50 points, The Cobblers and Wimbledon with 45, Swindon and Bristol R  43, Wigan 42 and Rochdale 39.
Of course it won't work out like that but it will take some improvement from several of those involved to make 50 points the crucial figure.
My guess is somewhere around 47 should do it.


I suspect you are also wrong.
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Knockingonabit
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« Reply #287 on: March 09, 2021, 12:23:09 pm »

Oh dear Milky Milky, but I have never been know to be wrong in all my life Grin Grin Grin...

Seriously though, I have followed these threads on here over several years when we have had the threat of relegation hanging over us and the safety figures suggested by most posters is usually too high. I am going from memory however!

I have always found, once there has been a significant number of game played, that the current points per game calculation is a more accurate forecast than using previous seasons figures.

As you say we will have to wait and see and I suspect if any of us will care if we are right or wrong as long as we survive!
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Manwork04
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« Reply #288 on: March 09, 2021, 12:53:40 pm »

Oh dear Milky Milky, but I have never been know to be wrong in all my life Grin Grin Grin...

Seriously though, I have followed these threads on here over several years when we have had the threat of relegation hanging over us and the safety figures suggested by most posters is usually too high. I am going from memory however!

I have always found, once there has been a significant number of game played, that the current points per game calculation is a more accurate forecast than using previous seasons figures.

As you say we will have to wait and see and I suspect if any of us will care if we are right or wrong as long as we survive!
If you were really bored you could check your theory, take an arbitrary umber of games, work out the PPG, multiply to 46 and check against the final table from last year.
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west stand oap
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« Reply #289 on: March 09, 2021, 12:56:10 pm »

There wasn't a final table last year as the season was cut short so he would have to go back to the previous season.
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« Reply #290 on: March 09, 2021, 13:21:15 pm »

There wasn't a final table last year as the season was cut short so he would have to go back to the previous season.
Good point, you could in fact pick any of the last few year, just not last year!
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« Reply #291 on: March 09, 2021, 18:16:51 pm »

Splendid idea Manny! Had a quick look at Div 1 2018/19 and my theory is blown totally out of the water. I'm off to sulk..
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Jim Hall Fixit
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« Reply #292 on: March 09, 2021, 21:02:31 pm »

Big day on Satdee.
Donny lost tonight and we really do need to pick up at least a point.
Wimbledon playing Brizzle as well.
It might be another uncomfortable Saturday night??
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« Reply #293 on: March 09, 2021, 21:33:47 pm »

Splendid idea Manny! Had a quick look at Div 1 2018/19 and my theory is blown totally out of the water. I'm off to sulk..
👍
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« Reply #294 on: March 09, 2021, 23:54:56 pm »

So, we've been dumped back into the bottom four after tonights results, Wigans surprising 2-0 win at Plymouth doing most damage.

Just 12 games to go for us now.....

17.  Shrewsbury Town   P 31   Pts 41   GD -1
18.  Burton Albion         P 32   Pts 37   GD -16
19.  Bristol Rovers        P 33   Pts 33   GD -19
20.  Wigan Athletic       P 34   Pts 33   GD -23
------------------------------------------------------
21.  COBBLERS            P 34   Pts 32   GD -21
22.  Swindon Town       P 34   Pts 31   GD -22
23.  AFC Wimbledon     P 32   Pts 30   GD -24
24.  Rochdale               P 34   Pts 28   GD -22

As Jim Hall says, big games coming up on Saturday....

BRISTOL ROVERS  v  AFC WIMBLEDON
Crewe Alexandra  v  BURTON ALBION
Doncaster Rovers  v  NORTHAMPTON TOWN
Lincoln City  v  ROCHDALE
SWINDON TOWN  v  Accrington Stanley

Wigan are without a game due to Sunderlands involvement in the EFL Trophy Final.

Coming up next Tuesday some more biggies as games in hand are used up.....

AFC WIMBLEDON  v  WIGAN ATHLETIC
Blackpool  v  BURTON ALBION
Charlton Athletic  v  BRISTOL ROVERS
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west stand oap
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« Reply #295 on: March 10, 2021, 12:59:17 pm »

I expect things will look bleaker this time next week. We have not won any of our last 11 away games, gaining just 4 draws, and only Swindon have fewer away points than us. It would be a surprise if we got anything at Doncaster and most of the teams around us have easier fixtures. Then we do not have a game next Tuesday and other teams will be picking up points.
It looks like we will need to win most of our remaining home games.
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« Reply #296 on: March 10, 2021, 16:51:01 pm »

I would say the opposite at the moment Iíve been amazed how poor our rivals have been, you just need to look at Burton who were adrift at the bottom and according to some as good as down, now they are already out of the relegation places and with a few games in hand. While we canít just rely on this poor run continuing it certainly helped when we went through our abysmal patch at the start of the year to still be in contention.

Iím just very pleased to have a team that for the first time look competitive and at least look like they have a realistic shot at escaping the drop. I would temper that with a touch of reality though, things change very quickly in football and while it feels nice to be able to say positive things the superlatives thrown by some on here you would think this is the first step on a guaranteed rise up the table.
I said 'Burton, Swindon, Wigan and AFC are getting a few good results'. I think this is correct. Despite our good week we have only taken 7 points from the last 6 games. Only AFC have got less (5). Wigan have 2 more and Burton 8 more than us in these games. My point being that the pack are keeping up with some very good results, and we have little scope for many slip ups. 
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« Reply #297 on: March 10, 2021, 16:52:23 pm »

Swindon the same as us.
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« Reply #298 on: March 13, 2021, 14:43:28 pm »

Good old Vadaine doing us a favour against Swindle this afternoon.
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« Reply #299 on: March 13, 2021, 17:05:16 pm »

A point away from home, not to be sniffed at, lifts us out of the bottom four. However Rochdale went two better with a win at Lincoln.
Rovers and Wimbledon got a point apiece from their game, the Shrews get a point and Burton just can't stop winning.

Just 11 games to go for us now.....

17.  Shrewsbury Town   P 32   Pts 42   GD -1
18.  Burton Albion         P 33   Pts 40   GD -13
19.  Bristol Rovers        P 34   Pts 34   GD -19
21.  COBBLERS            P 35   Pts 33   GD -21
------------------------------------------------------
20.  Wigan Athletic       P 34   Pts 33   GD -23
24.  Rochdale               P 35   Pts 31  GD -21
22.  Swindon Town       P 35   Pts 31   GD -24
23.  AFC Wimbledon     P 33   Pts 31   GD -24

A Tuesday night off for us.....Wimbledon have to make the most of their two games this week.....but whatever happens we will be back in the bottom four on Tuesday night.

AFC WIMBLEDON  v  WIGAN ATHLETIC
Blackpool  v  BURTON ALBION
Charlton Athletic  v  BRISTOL ROVERS

Next Saturday

Accrington Stanley  v  WIGAN ATHLETIC
AFC WIMBLEDON  v  Charlton Athletic
BURTON ALBION  v  MK Dons
Fleetwood Town  v  SWINDON TOWN
NORTHAMPTON TOWN  v  Crewe Alexandra
Plymouth Argyle  v  BRISTOL ROVERS
ROCHDALE  v  Peterborough United
SHEWSBURY TOWN  v  Hull City

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