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Jon Brady

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« Reply #260 on: April 21, 2021, 23:15:17 pm »

Well done OCoole for some very interesting stats.

You don't need to worry too much. The club is clearly preparing for his appointment judging by the twitter feeds coming out of the club.

Latest one "Lovely words from Jon Brady on why it's so important for the community that we keep on fighting" following the one the other day "a rallying call from Jon Brady."

The club are so funny the way they prepare the supporters for an announcement  Cheesy Do they think we were born yesterday  Roll Eyes

O'Coole has indeed presented some interesting details when comparing playing statistics ref Curle v Brady. He is clearly making clear his support for JBrady which he is entitled to do. For me at least it all depends on how Brady handles the current situation and his team continues to show determination to stay in League One. Whatever Curles faults he somehow got us to League One when most of us thought we had no chance. This great opportunity now appears to be squandered but even so should not be surrendered cheaply.  Perhaps Larry is right Curle merely ran out of luck after the Play offs. Contrary to some opinion the team is far better(I believe) than the constant cheap jibes, blaming selection, players and of course recruitment, all of which have been with us for most of this year.  Recent results against Oxford, Pompey and Ipswich clearly confirm that. What Brady has shown is his ability to get the best out of Curles team and his elevation of the Jones Boys with Chucks have improved things to give us a slim chance of avoiding relegation. At the moment the more cautious/wiser folk on here cautioned against change of Manager on the basis it is disruptive and counter productive. To counter this Curle's stubbiness in continuing with an obsolete playing style combined with truly debilitating results ended with his dismissal.  Where O'Cool's arguments begin to attract attention is suggesting that had Brady been appointed sooner we would be in a far better situation. He is assuming that of course to further his support for Brady; equally had Curle not been sacked we might have clawed our way out of trouble; its what Curles teams do. We just don't appreciate the unedifying sight of his tactics!  For me I prefer to remain in League 1 come what may but if relegated and Brady can keep the spine of the team he might be offered a contract. I hope very much he does well.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   
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« Reply #261 on: April 22, 2021, 00:27:56 am »

1. Where O'Cool's arguments begin to attract attention is suggesting that had Brady been appointed sooner we would be in a far better situation.
2. He is assuming that of course to further his support for Brady; equally had Curle not been sacked we might have clawed our way out of trouble; its what Curles teams do.  



1. No, I never said anything to the effect of "far better". I did the calculations for both of their records aggregated for 43 games, and it suggested that based on that record, we would 9 points better off under Brady than under Curle. In actual fact I think we would be more like 20 points better off, factoring for how bad they were under Curle in December and January, and also factoring for Brady being able to make his own signings (imagining he was there in summer 2020). But I did not say this in the original post so please do not put words into my mouth.

2. Talking of assumptions, that feels like a whopper of an assumption you are making there! I can only presume you did not watch any games in December or January?!  Grin

« Last Edit: April 22, 2021, 02:17:25 am by OCoole » Report Spam   Logged
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« Reply #262 on: April 22, 2021, 07:04:58 am »

OK here goes my thoughts, we will be playing in L2 again next year, I think we should stick with John, Sammo and Ricco and use as much of the budget as possible on a small younger quality squad.
I trust KT to do right by us as much as I would a rattle snake not to bite me, he will give us a mid to lower L2 budget.
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« Reply #263 on: April 22, 2021, 07:56:00 am »

OK here goes my thoughts, we will be playing in L2 again next year, I think we should stick with John, Sammo and Ricco and use as much of the budget as possible on a small younger quality squad.
I trust KT to do right by us as much as I would a rattle snake not to bite me, he will give us a mid to lower L2 budget.


Not sure on what logic you use to base this, our financial figures show KT doesn’t run the club on a profit. You have been hammering him for good housekeeping this season and our low budget, IF that was remotely true then we would surely be in a better position that the rest of the league that APPARENTLY didn’t housekeep and didn’t have low budgets relative to the size of the club, so surely there will be more money next season?.
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« Reply #264 on: April 22, 2021, 09:05:43 am »

Ocools stats do make for interesting reading - especially the goals for and against. I don’t like to have a go at the young lad but, if Edmundson had been dropped to the bench sooner, I think there would be an even more impressive differential.

The calculated points argument is irrelevant - there are so many other factors at play here.

Of course, I am desperate for JB and crew to do well. However, what KT must do, assuming we go down, is avoid another Dean Austin situation - give them at least until the January window (not just panic after 10 games!).
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« Reply #265 on: April 22, 2021, 11:52:11 am »

O'Coole has indeed presented some interesting details when comparing playing statistics ref Curle v Brady. He is clearly making clear his support for JBrady which he is entitled to do. For me at least it all depends on how Brady handles the current situation and his team continues to show determination to stay in League One. Whatever Curles faults he somehow got us to League One when most of us thought we had no chance. This great opportunity now appears to be squandered but even so should not be surrendered cheaply.  Perhaps Larry is right Curle merely ran out of luck after the Play offs. Contrary to some opinion the team is far better(I believe) than the constant cheap jibes, blaming selection, players and of course recruitment, all of which have been with us for most of this year.  Recent results against Oxford, Pompey and Ipswich clearly confirm that. What Brady has shown is his ability to get the best out of Curles team and his elevation of the Jones Boys with Chucks have improved things to give us a slim chance of avoiding relegation. At the moment the more cautious/wiser folk on here cautioned against change of Manager on the basis it is disruptive and counter productive. To counter this Curle's stubbiness in continuing with an obsolete playing style combined with truly debilitating results ended with his dismissal.  Where O'Cool's arguments begin to attract attention is suggesting that had Brady been appointed sooner we would be in a far better situation. He is assuming that of course to further his support for Brady; equally had Curle not been sacked we might have clawed our way out of trouble; its what Curles teams do. We just don't appreciate the unedifying sight of his tactics!  For me I prefer to remain in League 1 come what may but if relegated and Brady can keep the spine of the team he might be offered a contract. I hope very much he does well.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   

Possibly the best post you've made, Evers. You and I are in agreement far too often, these days. Grin I hope Brady turns out to be 'the man.' The thing that bothers me is the constant assessment that 'no one else could have come in and done any better because the players are all crap.' Then, on the odd occasions we pick up a good result, it's basically because JB has worked wonders with a s*** squad. By my reckoning, if the squad is good enough to perform against the likes of Pompey and Ipswich, then they were capable of better against those sides around us.
Brady could be the answer, but can we just watch the remainder of the season unfold without all the trumpeting of his potential. Simple fact is, it was in our own hands to survive in League 1. We've thrown that advantage away with some woeful results. I'm still to be convinced.
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« Reply #266 on: April 22, 2021, 11:57:38 am »

Ocools stats do make for interesting reading - especially the goals for and against. I don’t like to have a go at the young lad but, if Edmundson had been dropped to the bench sooner, I think there would be an even more impressive differential.

The calculated points argument is irrelevant - there are so many other factors at play here.

Of course, I am desperate for JB and crew to do well. However, what KT must do, assuming we go down, is avoid another Dean Austin situation - give them at least until the January window (not just panic after 10 games!).

O'cool's stats prove nothing. The rest of his argument is all just conjecture. I do agree with you though: if Brady and crew are handed the reins for next season, then they have to be given a decent run to prove themselves.
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« Reply #267 on: April 22, 2021, 12:01:48 pm »

Not sure on what logic you use to base this, our financial figures show KT doesn’t run the club on a profit. You have been hammering him for good housekeeping this season and our low budget, IF that was remotely true then we would surely be in a better position that the rest of the league that APPARENTLY didn’t housekeep and didn’t have low budgets relative to the size of the club, so surely there will be more money next season?.
Ok, so let me reset your thoughts, I have no clue what you are talking about in the above paragraph it makes no sense?
We are currently £8m + in debt to our owners, we have an inadequate squad for this league, the table doesn’t lie, we will be relegated and next season we will have a much reduced budget because we are in L2.
I really don’t get the point you are making?
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« Reply #268 on: April 22, 2021, 12:05:40 pm »

Possibly the best post you've made, Evers. You and I are in agreement far too often, these days. Grin I hope Brady turns out to be 'the man.' The thing that bothers me is the constant assessment that 'no one else could have come in and done any better because the players are all crap.' Then, on the odd occasions we pick up a good result, it's basically because JB has worked wonders with a **** squad. By my reckoning, if the squad is good enough to perform against the likes of Pompey and Ipswich, then they were capable of better against those sides around us.
Brady could be the answer, but can we just watch the remainder of the season unfold without all the trumpeting of his potential. Simple fact is, it was in our own hands to survive in League 1. We've thrown that advantage away with some woeful results. I'm still to be convinced.
I think that’s why this squad plays for us, it’s all about consistency, Championship player give 8/10 performances 80% of the time, where our squad is capable of the same 20% of the time.
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« Reply #269 on: April 22, 2021, 12:30:37 pm »



1. No, I never said anything to the effect of "far better". I did the calculations for both of their records aggregated for 43 games, and it suggested that based on that record, we would 9 points better off under Brady than under Curle. In actual fact I think we would be more like 20 points better off, factoring for how bad they were under Curle in December and January, and also factoring for Brady being able to make his own signings (imagining he was there in summer 2020). But I did not say this in the original post so please do not put words into my mouth.

2. Talking of assumptions, that feels like a whopper of an assumption you are making there! I can only presume you did not watch any games in December or January?!  Grin



Firstly I appreciate your detailed analysis and largely agree with your findings. Provided Brady and his team maintain the current progress to the end of season with commendable efforts made by all concerned to retain our place in League 1 then he deserves a contract.
 
I think your opinion in the last three paragraphs sees a casual introduction of 'if' and the assumptions follow. You give a possible 48pts after 43 games which to most on here would indeed be a far better situation than which we now face? Your analysis by defining the merits of the Brady Team clearly favours the selection of Jon Brady as Manager; this is I think is entirely understandable. In arriving at a 48pt after 43 games by definition this would be a far far better situation?
I hope Team Brady achieves the almost impossible and win 4 games on the trot and secure possible survival in League 1. Who wouldn't?
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« Reply #270 on: April 22, 2021, 12:32:06 pm »


I really don’t get the point you are making?

The club has said with the uncertainties surrounding COVID a cautious approach (good housekeeping) would be taken. You have said the club has one if not the smallest budget in the league, if this is true then other clubs have not taken this cautious approach. In theory this good housekeeping would suggest the club should be in a better position financially compared with other more reckless clubs, yet you are suggesting the clubs budget next season will again be low compared to the size of the club relative to others. Why will it be? Are you suggesting KT is taking money out of the club?
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« Reply #271 on: April 22, 2021, 12:46:30 pm »

O'cool's stats prove nothing. The rest of his argument is all just conjecture. I do agree with you though: if Brady and crew are handed the reins for next season, then they have to be given a decent run to prove themselves.


As far as I can see I am the only one trying to use statistics to support my argument for what should happen.

Your argument is ENTIRELY conjecture.
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« Reply #272 on: April 22, 2021, 12:55:21 pm »

Firstly I appreciate your detailed analysis and largely agree with your findings. Provided Brady and his team maintain the current progress to the end of season with commendable efforts made by all concerned to retain our place in League 1 then he deserves a contract.
 
I think your opinion in the last three paragraphs sees a casual introduction of 'if' and the assumptions follow. You give a possible 48pts after 43 games which to most on here would indeed be a far better situation than which we now face? Your analysis by defining the merits of the Brady Team clearly favours the selection of Jon Brady as Manager; this is I think is entirely understandable. In arriving at a 48pt after 43 games by definition this would be a far far better situation?
I hope Team Brady achieves the almost impossible and win 4 games on the trot and secure possible survival in League 1. Who wouldn't?


I agree that aggregating the points totals for both managers is in no way an exact science but my intention was to shine light over the two managers' records and give an idea whereabouts we might be now if either had been given all season. Clearly everyone will have their own opinions on which manager is right for the club (including external options) but I felt it was necessary to put the stats plainly for all to see their records and generate discussion. James Heneghan's put a Chron article out today which states that we are the 16th best side in League One since Brady's arrival, which is also useful I feel - https://www.northamptonchron.co.uk/sport/football/brady-is-putting-himself-in-the-frame-for-the-full-time-job-at-cobblers-3210288
I cannot deny that I am very much of the opinion that Brady is the right man for the job, and I'm pleased to see that he is at least on the right path to convincing you!  Wink
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« Reply #273 on: April 22, 2021, 12:59:10 pm »

Possibly the best post you've made, Evers. You and I are in agreement far too often, these days. Grin I hope Brady turns out to be 'the man.' The thing that bothers me is the constant assessment that 'no one else could have come in and done any better because the players are all crap.' Then, on the odd occasions we pick up a good result, it's basically because JB has worked wonders with a **** squad. By my reckoning, if the squad is good enough to perform against the likes of Pompey and Ipswich, then they were capable of better against those sides around us.
Brady could be the answer, but can we just watch the remainder of the season unfold without all the trumpeting of his potential. Simple fact is, it was in our own hands to survive in League 1. We've thrown that advantage away with some woeful results. I'm still to be convinced.

The board, as all do, allows some far fetched and demonstrably inaccurate opinions; its what boards all over do!
Regarding the definition that the players are crap made by quite a few on here , an example of such comments got Terry to expose them (quote) as bottom feeders who do nothing but pull apart the Players and Club(end quote) . It is depressing to read doom laden repetitive opinion for ever and a day. In some games the players have proved that they are not rubbish and have gained decent results against Fleetwood, Sunderland, Portsmouth, Oxford and Ipswich to name some? These are sides supposedly better than us with higher budgets with better players(?) to boot. You are quite right to maintain a cautious approach.
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« Reply #274 on: April 22, 2021, 13:08:53 pm »

The club has said with the uncertainties surrounding COVID a cautious approach (good housekeeping) would be taken. You have said the club has one if not the smallest budget in the league, if this is true then other clubs have not taken this cautious approach. In theory this good housekeeping would suggest the club should be in a better position financially compared with other more reckless clubs, yet you are suggesting the clubs budget next season will again be low compared to the size of the club relative to others. Why will it be? Are you suggesting KT is taking money out of the club?
Of course he’s taking a wage, what I am exposing is that KT is running us on a shoestring budget, certainly for L1 and probably a mid to lower table L2 club.

Any extra money put into the business on top of turnover is in the form of a loan, KT isn’t investing anymore into NTFC just look at the state of the stadium, broken windows, scoreboard, seats and the hideous stand he PROMISED to fix 6 years ago.
As soon as the land deal is done he’ll be off, I just hope the council caveat the contract to the benefit of NTFC.
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« Reply #275 on: April 22, 2021, 13:14:33 pm »


I agree that aggregating the points totals for both managers is in no way an exact science but my intention was to shine light over the two managers' records and give an idea whereabouts we might be now if either had been given all season. Clearly everyone will have their own opinions on which manager is right for the club (including external options) but I felt it was necessary to put the stats plainly for all to see their records and generate discussion. James Heneghan's put a Chron article out today which states that we are the 16th best side in League One since Brady's arrival, which is also useful I feel - https://www.northamptonchron.co.uk/sport/football/brady-is-putting-himself-in-the-frame-for-the-full-time-job-at-cobblers-3210288
I cannot deny that I am very much of the opinion that Brady is the right man for the job, and I'm pleased to see that he is at least on the right path to convincing you!  Wink


You clearly have done some good work and Heneghan's article today seems at the very least to confirm your analysis. Of course some on here will challenge/comment on your analysis so best to avoid personal comments and concentrate on the facts. Perhaps those who favour statistical analysis can take an interest.....GPC for example!
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« Reply #276 on: April 22, 2021, 13:22:02 pm »


As far as I can see I am the only one trying to use statistics to support my argument for what should happen.

Your argument is ENTIRELY conjecture.

So we haven't performed woefully against those sides around us? Grin
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« Reply #277 on: April 22, 2021, 14:46:21 pm »

So we haven't performed woefully against those sides around us? Grin


Poorly? Yes. Woefully? Certainly not.

If you want to know what was woeful form, look at Curle's performance against the current top 8 sides. Again I'll provide some evidence so we are not making floundering arguments.


Current top 8 sides: Hull, Posh, Sunderland, Lincoln, Blackpool, Charlton, Oxford, Portsmouth

Current bottom 8 sides (excluding Cobblers): Plymouth, Burton, Shrewsbury, AFC Wimbledon, Wigan, Rochdale, Swindon, Bristol Rovers


Curle's record vs bottom 8:

Played: 9
Won: 4
Drawn: 2
Lost: 3

Goals conceded: 14
Goals scored: 13

Curle's record vs top 8:

Played: 9
Won: 0
Drawn: 1
Lost: 8

Goals conceded: 21
Goals scored: 1


Brady's record vs bottom 8:

Played: 7
Won: 2
Drawn: 2
Lost: 3

Goals conceded: 6
Goals scored: 5

Brady's record vs top 8:

Played: 6
Won: 3
Drawn: 0
Lost: 3

Goals conceded: 9
Goals scored: 10


Yes Brady's record against the sides around us hasn't been great, but ask yourself why? His very first game was against Burton. They were resurgent by that point and he had just taken over a team with rock bottom confidence and had 1 or 2 days training with them for goodness sake. The defeat to Swindon was poor, but Mitchell was f*cking awful for us in that game and cost us 2 preventable goals in a game that we lost 2-1. Losing 1-0 to Wimbledon was not good enough, but again could have been different if Sammy had scored from the spot.

Credit where it is due to Curle, he did have a reasonably strong record against sides around us. But that record of 8 defeats and 1 draw out of 9 games against the top sides is inexcusable. As for conceding 21 goals and only scoring just 1 goal in those 9 games, well... Brady has made us look competitive in nearly every game we have played under him, barring a comprehensive defeat to the best side in the division in Hull. Versus top 8 sides, Curle's goal difference is -20, Brady's is +1. Would you like a manager that makes him team competitive against all sides or not?

Say that my argument is conjecture again and I'll politely tell you to look in a mirror. I'd also be interested to hear realistic suggestions of managers that you believe would probably do a better job than Brady next season?
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« Reply #278 on: April 22, 2021, 15:11:04 pm »

O'coole. Good work on the stats, but they do not factor in certain variables.

The main one is players.

Arguably, two of our best players in recent times have been Kioso and Jones (defender). These two missed most of/all of the first half of the season, the bulk of KC's period, because he didn't sign them until later in the season. Morris has also been a fairly important player, again only signed in January. When Miller played we picked up some decent results, again signed in January.

Where I will say that Brady has worked some magic is the forming of the partnership of Jones and Horsfall. Horsfall has been a revelation since Bolger's been kicked out the starting line up, and Jones has been excellent as well. He's also found a position in the team for Watson that really gets the best out of him.

Regarding points per game, if we had lost on Tuesday the stats would have been very close. We are now playing teams that 'are on holiday' and lets be fare, Ipswich were awful defensively and didn't look at all focused. You can though, only beat whats put in front of you. The fired up teams, those below/around us, we have failed in 5 attempts to beat them. Under KC, we got excellent results from those games, less so against the better teams. Funny old game.

Id also say that our style of play has become more direct as Brady's reign has evolved. The football we played at Ipswich and MK Dons for example was excellent, on Tuesday night it was very direct (30% possession) and effective because for one reason, he finally succumbed to the obvious and gave Chuck and Jones (who he signed for a pittance, good work there) a go. It worked well, they caused more problems than any other forward line we've mustered up throughout the season, even if they didn't score a goal between them!

I think Brady is doing alright, but like some others have said, lets see how it all looks and feels after the Sunderland game. I FELT VERY negative after the Bristol Rovers game which I thought was awful (coupled with late subs again and a reluctance to try a different shape until right towards the end), the Posh game I accepted because they are frankly a much better team than us.

I do like Brady though, top bloke. As of course are Rico and Sammo. It would be great if we could go into next season with them and spend any available cash on more/better players rather than a new management team. I just need a bit more convincing that its the right way forward!

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« Reply #279 on: April 22, 2021, 15:58:41 pm »

Regarding points per game, if we had lost on Tuesday the stats would have been very close. We are now playing teams that 'are on holiday' and lets be fare, Ipswich were awful defensively and didn't look at all focused. You can though, only beat whats put in front of you. The fired up teams, those below/around us, we have failed in 5 attempts to beat them. Under KC, we got excellent results from those games, less so against the better teams. Funny old game.


Sorry Drilling I respect the points you are making but I have to pull you up here - I don't think you can say Curle's results were 'excellent' against the lesser teams. As I showed in my previous post, they won 4 out of 9, drew 2, and lost 3. Don't get me wrong this is good form but excellent surely would necessitate winning 80% of those games. One of those wins was the 3-2 win against Wigan at a time when they were a complete basketcase of a club and had to field a team mostly formed of youth players. Another of the 4 wins was against Burton when they were a total shambles earlier this season. Of course as you say you can only beat what is in front of you but if we are stating caveats (such as Ipswich being 'on holiday'), these are certainly worth noting.

The goal difference against top 8 and bottom 8 sides is so illuminating in my opinion.
Curle vs bottom 8 is -1, and vs top 8 is -20. Brady vs bottom 8 is -1, and against top 8 is +1.

I also think it is somewhat unfair to suggest that we are direct under Brady. We may go longer periods without the ball but when they do have the ball it is played out via Horsfall and Lloyd Jones almost always in a shorter pass to a full back or to Morris in midfield. Under Curle the defence couldn't even hit a long ball within 10 yards of a forward when it was lumped up the pitch. Players have noticeably improved under Brady - no more so than Horsfall, who I said was a good player early on this season when others wrote him off - and I think he merits credit for that. Under Brady with have actually achieved over 50% possession in games (revolutionary I know, Keith) so you cannot just point to the 30% vs Ipswich. I would argue that in games with less possession under Brady (apart from vs Hull) it has been a case of playing on the counter - rather than 10 men behind the ball, hoof and chase under Curle. I think next season when Brady can improve the squad we will see us dominating possession in most games in League Two (as looks our likely fate after Wigan and Wimbledon resurgences) as he likes the team to build from the back and work the ball until the opportunity presents. I'm not sure what more could be done to have more possession with the current group of players?
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