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Summer 2021 Transfer Window

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« Reply #1860 on: July 17, 2021, 19:44:11 pm »

Matt Jay.

Realistic and fair shout.

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« Reply #1861 on: July 17, 2021, 20:04:53 pm »

Personally I feel at our level i feel recruitment is a lottery regardless of budgets.

Strongly disagree.

Successful lower-league clubs:

1. Use proper detailed, data analysis rather than relying purely on superficial subjective
    judgements or headline stats only (i.e. a cursory look at goals scored and assists)
2. Speculate to accumulate by spending reasonable amounts of money judiciously on players who are likely to have some re-sale value.
3. Assess players on character and fitness rather than purely on ability (c.f. the Van Veen, Crooks, Gash Taylor and Pereria era)
4. Negotiate effectively to get a high price plus sell-on-clauses for their saleable assets

There's still obviously an element of chance, but if you do those things effectively then you massively load the dice in your favour.

KT correctly identified that our relegation was primarily due to poor recruitment. Ostensibly, he's taken some action to improve the recruitment infrastructure: bringing Foyle back who may have contributed on some level of Wilder's success, getting Graham Carr involved etc.

The signings so far have very much a 'below-the-radar quality' to them and it's too early to say whether they will be successful. It concerns me slightly that we appear to be recruiting primarily from a fairly limited gene pool: Englishmen who've been plying their trade in the lower reaches of the SPL. If they come good then Foyle will look like a genius; if not, then serious questions will be asked about the recruitment process once again.

The big concern is still the forward line. We all know that the relegation was primarily down to lack of goals scored and Graham Carr said publicly that we needed two new centre forwards. So far we've signed Kabamba who may come good but doesn't appear to fit the targetman mould at first glance.

If I was Brady I would be actively looking fairly urgently for a striker who has a high percentage of   'aerial duel wins' and a high ratio of successful lay-offs. No one in the squad has these attributes IMO and I can't see us being successful without them, particularly if we play with two out-and-out wingers.  

I suspect part of Brady's strategy might be to put faith in youth this season.
There's a scenario in which Pollock emerges as a consistent starter as a
creative spark alongside McWilliams in midfield. A lot of people have written BAS off, but it's certainly not inconceivable that we might see a completely different player given a season at a lower level with better service - he's shown in flashes (e.g. Exeter in the JPT) that he can finish.



 



 
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« Reply #1862 on: July 17, 2021, 22:26:02 pm »

I think Brady is in for a rude awakening. There is always huge optimism on here in the pre-season when new players arrive but nobody NOBODY really has a clue as to how they will gel. I don't see any outstanding talents in the new crop and am always worried (drank a jar of coffee) when a player such as Hoskins remains centre-piece. I think we need to turn over a new leaf, if somebody has offered dosh for him there should be no hesitation. What do we really, when the chips are down, expect from the new season? Top ten? Safety? Mid-table? Avoid relegation? Play-offs?
Same as KT avoid relegation, just.
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« Reply #1863 on: July 18, 2021, 22:18:22 pm »

Strongly disagree.

Successful lower-league clubs:

1. Use proper detailed, data analysis rather than relying purely on superficial subjective
    judgements or headline stats only (i.e. a cursory look at goals scored and assists)
2. Speculate to accumulate by spending reasonable amounts of money judiciously on players who are likely to have some re-sale value.
3. Assess players on character and fitness rather than purely on ability (c.f. the Van Veen, Crooks, Gash Taylor and Pereria era)
4. Negotiate effectively to get a high price plus sell-on-clauses for their saleable assets

There's still obviously an element of chance, but if you do those things effectively then you massively load the dice in your favour.

KT correctly identified that our relegation was primarily due to poor recruitment. Ostensibly, he's taken some action to improve the recruitment infrastructure: bringing Foyle back who may have contributed on some level of Wilder's success, getting Graham Carr involved etc.

The signings so far have very much a 'below-the-radar quality' to them and it's too early to say whether they will be successful. It concerns me slightly that we appear to be recruiting primarily from a fairly limited gene pool: Englishmen who've been plying their trade in the lower reaches of the SPL. If they come good then Foyle will look like a genius; if not, then serious questions will be asked about the recruitment process once again.

The big concern is still the forward line. We all know that the relegation was primarily down to lack of goals scored and Graham Carr said publicly that we needed two new centre forwards. So far we've signed Kabamba who may come good but doesn't appear to fit the targetman mould at first glance.

If I was Brady I would be actively looking fairly urgently for a striker who has a high percentage of   'aerial duel wins' and a high ratio of successful lay-offs. No one in the squad has these attributes IMO and I can't see us being successful without them, particularly if we play with two out-and-out wingers.  

I suspect part of Brady's strategy might be to put faith in youth this season.
There's a scenario in which Pollock emerges as a consistent starter as a
creative spark alongside McWilliams in midfield. A lot of people have written BAS off, but it's certainly not inconceivable that we might see a completely different player given a season at a lower level with better service - he's shown in flashes (e.g. Exeter in the JPT) that he can finish.


Good comments Bungle - who are these ' Successful lower-league clubs: ?
After Satursday loss a bit of apprehension has crept in and as you say we dont have a striker who is good in the air; if we did who do we have to play with him.
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« Reply #1864 on: July 19, 2021, 09:59:59 am »

We’ve signed just about as many players as any league two club…maybe one/two less than a couple. More than the vast majority. We must be very close to having our starting squad.
It’s definitely JB’s team now anyway!
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« Reply #1865 on: July 19, 2021, 10:16:32 am »

We’ve signed just about as many players as any league two club…maybe one/two less than a couple. More than the vast majority. We must be very close to having our starting squad.
It’s definitely JB’s team now anyway!

I do think with such wholesale changes there needs to be a focus on team cohesion in preseason games.

Ideally you want to be seeing your first 11 getting minutes together.
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« Reply #1866 on: July 19, 2021, 10:46:34 am »

Strongly disagree.

Successful lower-league clubs:

1. Use proper detailed, data analysis rather than relying purely on superficial subjective
    judgements or headline stats only (i.e. a cursory look at goals scored and assists)
2. Speculate to accumulate by spending reasonable amounts of money judiciously on players who are likely to have some re-sale value.
3. Assess players on character and fitness rather than purely on ability (c.f. the Van Veen, Crooks, Gash Taylor and Pereria era)
4. Negotiate effectively to get a high price plus sell-on-clauses for their saleable assets

There's still obviously an element of chance, but if you do those things effectively then you massively load the dice in your favour.

KT correctly identified that our relegation was primarily due to poor recruitment. Ostensibly, he's taken some action to improve the recruitment infrastructure: bringing Foyle back who may have contributed on some level of Wilder's success, getting Graham Carr involved etc.

The signings so far have very much a 'below-the-radar quality' to them and it's too early to say whether they will be successful. It concerns me slightly that we appear to be recruiting primarily from a fairly limited gene pool: Englishmen who've been plying their trade in the lower reaches of the SPL. If they come good then Foyle will look like a genius; if not, then serious questions will be asked about the recruitment process once again.

The big concern is still the forward line. We all know that the relegation was primarily down to lack of goals scored and Graham Carr said publicly that we needed two new centre forwards. So far we've signed Kabamba who may come good but doesn't appear to fit the targetman mould at first glance.

If I was Brady I would be actively looking fairly urgently for a striker who has a high percentage of   'aerial duel wins' and a high ratio of successful lay-offs. No one in the squad has these attributes IMO and I can't see us being successful without them, particularly if we play with two out-and-out wingers.  

I suspect part of Brady's strategy might be to put faith in youth this season.
There's a scenario in which Pollock emerges as a consistent starter as a
creative spark alongside McWilliams in midfield. A lot of people have written BAS off, but it's certainly not inconceivable that we might see a completely different player given a season at a lower level with better service - he's shown in flashes (e.g. Exeter in the JPT) that he can finish.



 



 

I agree in principle but I would imagine (and hope) that most teams already do this. The thing is there is so much more to it than that I would imagine. I can find a list of say 5 players in 10 minutes who meet those criteria. For example looking at the SPL, League 2 and the Conference last season at strikers who played more than 2000 minutes, under 30, with at least 10 league goals who win 40% of their aerial battles.

The 5 names that appear, Joe Quigley (Yeovil), Kyle Wootton (Notts County), Paul McCallum (Dag & Red), Joe Ironside (Cambridge), Rhys Oates (was Hartlepool, just signed for Mansfield).

But each one of these come with risks, some have played in the football league before and not been successful, playing at a lower level can boost the figures, have they played with another striker or on their own, one season wonder etc etc. So imagine then every team looking at those players, assessing whether they are available, fit in the system and so on.

I would imagine clubs have people that look at this in HUGE detail and certainly at higher levels they have masses of staff that look at it, would definitely be something to look at moving forward though in more detail.
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« Reply #1867 on: July 19, 2021, 11:30:56 am »

I agree in principle but I would imagine (and hope) that most teams already do this. The thing is there is so much more to it than that I would imagine. I can find a list of say 5 players in 10 minutes who meet those criteria. For example looking at the SPL, League 2 and the Conference last season at strikers who played more than 2000 minutes, under 30, with at least 10 league goals who win 40% of their aerial battles.

The 5 names that appear, Joe Quigley (Yeovil), Kyle Wootton (Notts County), Paul McCallum (Dag & Red), Joe Ironside (Cambridge), Rhys Oates (was Hartlepool, just signed for Mansfield).

But each one of these come with risks, some have played in the football league before and not been successful, playing at a lower level can boost the figures, have they played with another striker or on their own, one season wonder etc

Agree that this stuff seems fairly obvious, but KT as good as admitted that our recruitment processes haven't been sufficiently data-informed or rigorous so clearly we simply haven't been doing this stuff to the required level.

Our relegation in 2018 was primarily down to a lack of character; our relegation in 2021 was primarily down to a lack of ability in both penalty areas. In both cases recruitment was largely the issue.

As I've said many times, I suspect that a lot of recruitment at L1 and L2 level is still primarily driven by superficial subjective judgements by scouts rather than rigorous analysis of how a players attributes would fit in with the existing squad. I've said many times that the signing of Harry Smith is the operative example: a player who superficially looks like a good physical specimen, scored 9 goals for a poor Macclesfield side but was woefully ill-equipped to play the targetman role that Curle envisaged for him due to his inability to win aerial duels or hold it up (something that some simple data analysis would surely have uncovered).

As you say, data-based recruitment is far from an exact science and there will always be duds aswell as diamonds. However, if you get it right then you can load the dice in your favour and your superior diamond-to-dud ratio will give you a competitive edge. I would say Acrrington, Burton, Wycombe and possibly even Gillingham are all examples of lower-league clubs who are punching above their weight due to highly effective recruitment rather than relying on simply splashing the cash.



 
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« Reply #1868 on: July 19, 2021, 13:01:36 pm »

Apologies if it has already been mentioned but I had no idea that Ash Taylor has moved to Walsall on a free transfer from Aberdeen.
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« Reply #1869 on: July 19, 2021, 13:04:08 pm »

Agree that this stuff seems fairly obvious, but KT as good as admitted that our recruitment processes haven't been sufficiently data-informed or rigorous so clearly we simply haven't been doing this stuff to the required level.

Our relegation in 2018 was primarily down to a lack of character; our relegation in 2021 was primarily down to a lack of ability in both penalty areas. In both cases recruitment was largely the issue.

As I've said many times, I suspect that a lot of recruitment at L1 and L2 level is still primarily driven by superficial subjective judgements by scouts rather than rigorous analysis of how a players attributes would fit in with the existing squad. I've said many times that the signing of Harry Smith is the operative example: a player who superficially looks like a good physical specimen, scored 9 goals for a poor Macclesfield side but was woefully ill-equipped to play the targetman role that Curle envisaged for him due to his inability to win aerial duels or hold it up (something that some simple data analysis would surely have uncovered).

As you say, data-based recruitment is far from an exact science and there will always be duds aswell as diamonds. However, if you get it right then you can load the dice in your favour and your superior diamond-to-dud ratio will give you a competitive edge. I would say Acrrington, Burton, Wycombe and possibly even Gillingham are all examples of lower-league clubs who are punching above their weight due to highly effective recruitment rather than relying on simply splashing the cash.

 
All of this makes sense to me, but when you say you can load the dice in your favour, if player choice comes down to a computer algorithm with clubs wanting the top ranking player, doesn't it actually load the dice further in favour of the wealthiest clubs in each division?
When you say superficial subjective analysis by scouts, it's most definitely subjective but provided the scout has done a proper job, why is it superficial? Statistical analysis of most of our recent recruits really is superficial to my mind because most these days seem to come from other leagues or no leagues at all. How can you reliably statistically analyse a player who has made less than 50 relevant league appearances and how is that any better than a scout who knows the game in a way most of us on here do not?
Of Bungles 4 bulletin points, isn't 3 also by definition, a subjective analysis?
I still think a good scout will see things a computer model will not and if the computer model has precious little relevant data to go on, that scouts opinion is probably a better gauge.
By contrast if we were to sign the sort of player with a body of reliable data such as when we resigned Rico, would anyone really need statistics to decide if he was going to fit into any particular managers style of play?
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« Reply #1870 on: July 19, 2021, 14:03:02 pm »

All of this makes sense to me, but when you say you can load the dice in your favour, if player choice comes down to a computer algorithm with clubs wanting the top ranking player, doesn't it actually load the dice further in favour of the wealthiest clubs in each division?
When you say superficial subjective analysis by scouts, it's most definitely subjective but provided the scout has done a proper job, why is it superficial? Statistical analysis of most of our recent recruits really is superficial to my mind because most these days seem to come from other leagues or no leagues at all. How can you reliably statistically analyse a player who has made less than 50 relevant league appearances and how is that any better than a scout who knows the game in a way most of us on here do not?
Of Bungles 4 bulletin points, isn't 3 also by definition, a subjective analysis?
I still think a good scout will see things a computer model will not and if the computer model has precious little relevant data to go on, that scouts opinion is probably a better gauge.
By contrast if we were to sign the sort of player with a body of reliable data such as when we resigned Rico, would anyone really need statistics to decide if he was going to fit into any particular managers style of play?

The modern solution used by the most successful clubs isn't either data vs the scouts' eye - it's both. It's rare that "scouts" just watch games now (picture the sheepskin wearing bloke taking notes in the stands).

The manager / head of football will tell the head of player recruitment the profile of what type of player they are wanting - say for example a centre back with the ability to carry the ball and pass accurately through the lines (e.g. in the mould of Harry Maguire), given the manager would like to be able to transition the ball better to forward players.
The head of player recruitment would then work with the analyst/scouting/recruitment/whatever you would like to call them to figure out how to identify them. Given that its their career I'd imagine they're pretty adept at cutting through the noise of hundreds of data points (many are irrelevant) and finding some that can identify the right type of player for the manager.
After that they would need to select appropriate leagues to find player data (i.e. leagues where players can be signed for reasonable fees/salaries. 
They would then shortlist a number and then decide which of them to watch in more detail. At first this would be done via player information databases / scouting tools such as Wyscout. These allow the (paid) users to watch whole games on demand. Pretty much every league that Cobblers might sign a player from will have virtually all its games uploaded to these databases so this allows them to get a very good understanding of a player. If I'm not mistaken you can actually focus the camera on a player too so you can watch how they move and react throughout a game also. With all this footage the analyst/scout can see patterns in a players general play and write a report on them, perhaps also including statistics to support their visual observations on them.
After this a club might decide to watch a few games in person. If a player is out of contract this might be difficult, but given tools like Wyscout the necessity for this might depend on how fussy / old school a manager is.

The key thing is that a player would never be signed on impressive stats alone. Those are often used to highlight a player, but a player is always watched as well!
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« Reply #1871 on: July 19, 2021, 14:30:31 pm »

The modern solution used by the most successful clubs isn't either data vs the scouts' eye - it's both. It's rare that "scouts" just watch games now (picture the sheepskin wearing bloke taking notes in the stands).

The manager / head of football will tell the head of player recruitment the profile of what type of player they are wanting - say for example a centre back with the ability to carry the ball and pass accurately through the lines (e.g. in the mould of Harry Maguire), given the manager would like to be able to transition the ball better to forward players.
The head of player recruitment would then work with the analyst/scouting/recruitment/whatever you would like to call them to figure out how to identify them. Given that its their career I'd imagine they're pretty adept at cutting through the noise of hundreds of data points (many are irrelevant) and finding some that can identify the right type of player for the manager.
After that they would need to select appropriate leagues to find player data (i.e. leagues where players can be signed for reasonable fees/salaries. 
They would then shortlist a number and then decide which of them to watch in more detail. At first this would be done via player information databases / scouting tools such as Wyscout. These allow the (paid) users to watch whole games on demand. Pretty much every league that Cobblers might sign a player from will have virtually all its games uploaded to these databases so this allows them to get a very good understanding of a player. If I'm not mistaken you can actually focus the camera on a player too so you can watch how they move and react throughout a game also. With all this footage the analyst/scout can see patterns in a players general play and write a report on them, perhaps also including statistics to support their visual observations on them.
After this a club might decide to watch a few games in person. If a player is out of contract this might be difficult, but given tools like Wyscout the necessity for this might depend on how fussy / old school a manager is.

The key thing is that a player would never be signed on impressive stats alone. Those are often used to highlight a player, but a player is always watched as well!

John Motson? Grin
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« Reply #1872 on: July 19, 2021, 14:36:37 pm »

The modern solution used by the most successful clubs isn't either data vs the scouts' eye - it's both. It's rare that "scouts" just watch games now (picture the sheepskin wearing bloke taking notes in the stands).

The manager / head of football will tell the head of player recruitment the profile of what type of player they are wanting - say for example a centre back with the ability to carry the ball and pass accurately through the lines (e.g. in the mould of Harry Maguire), given the manager would like to be able to transition the ball better to forward players.
The head of player recruitment would then work with the analyst/scouting/recruitment/whatever you would like to call them to figure out how to identify them. Given that its their career I'd imagine they're pretty adept at cutting through the noise of hundreds of data points (many are irrelevant) and finding some that can identify the right type of player for the manager.
After that they would need to select appropriate leagues to find player data (i.e. leagues where players can be signed for reasonable fees/salaries. 
They would then shortlist a number and then decide which of them to watch in more detail. At first this would be done via player information databases / scouting tools such as Wyscout. These allow the (paid) users to watch whole games on demand. Pretty much every league that Cobblers might sign a player from will have virtually all its games uploaded to these databases so this allows them to get a very good understanding of a player. If I'm not mistaken you can actually focus the camera on a player too so you can watch how they move and react throughout a game also. With all this footage the analyst/scout can see patterns in a players general play and write a report on them, perhaps also including statistics to support their visual observations on them.
After this a club might decide to watch a few games in person. If a player is out of contract this might be difficult, but given tools like Wyscout the necessity for this might depend on how fussy / old school a manager is.

The key thing is that a player would never be signed on impressive stats alone. Those are often used to highlight a player, but a player is always watched as well!
Watched but not necessarily in person...so we could sign someone whose stats hold up but are from a different league (inferior, superior, or a different style of play generally, youth, overseas, and who looks the part on a screen without having a that confirmed by a real time scout? (I know I'm beginning to sound like Everbright).
The gene pool from which to choose is massively bigger then but is it any better? What about agents bringing players to the attention of clubs, how much importance does that have today and how much of the statistical analysis is abandoned if the agent is doing his job effectively?!
There's a whole industry that has been built up in order to successfully sign the correct players that's for sure. Wonder how many clubs have seen an improvement in their league positions over their historical average as a result of this though?
Maybe just a case of keeping up with the Jonses. Evolve in order to send still.
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« Reply #1873 on: July 19, 2021, 14:40:22 pm »

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« Reply #1874 on: July 19, 2021, 15:07:33 pm »

Agree that this stuff seems fairly obvious, but KT as good as admitted that our recruitment processes haven't been sufficiently data-informed or rigorous so clearly we simply haven't been doing this stuff to the required level.

Our relegation in 2018 was primarily down to a lack of character; our relegation in 2021 was primarily down to a lack of ability in both penalty areas. In both cases recruitment was largely the issue.

As I've said many times, I suspect that a lot of recruitment at L1 and L2 level is still primarily driven by superficial subjective judgements by scouts rather than rigorous analysis of how a players attributes would fit in with the existing squad. I've said many times that the signing of Harry Smith is the operative example: a player who superficially looks like a good physical specimen, scored 9 goals for a poor Macclesfield side but was woefully ill-equipped to play the targetman role that Curle envisaged for him due to his inability to win aerial duels or hold it up (something that some simple data analysis would surely have uncovered).

As you say, data-based recruitment is far from an exact science and there will always be duds aswell as diamonds. However, if you get it right then you can load the dice in your favour and your superior diamond-to-dud ratio will give you a competitive edge. I would say Acrrington, Burton, Wycombe and possibly even Gillingham are all examples of lower-league clubs who are punching above their weight due to highly effective recruitment rather than relying on simply splashing the cash.


You could also consider Rotherham, Barnsley, Millwall and Peterborough as punching above their weight. In the lower Divisions certainly Cambridge, Cheltenham, Morecombe,Crewe,  Fleetwood, Shrewsbury and even Lincoln. Lower still the list gets longer for instance Colchester who survive on poor league gates compared with NTFC. Most of these Clubs will find their true level soon enough. The standout Club is Stanley so perhaps their methods might be worth analysing. Perhaps it is their judicial use of loan players from nearby clubs?
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« Reply #1875 on: July 19, 2021, 15:32:54 pm »

Watched but not necessarily in person...so we could sign someone whose stats hold up but are from a different league (inferior, superior, or a different style of play generally, youth, overseas, and who looks the part on a screen without having a that confirmed by a real time scout? (I know I'm beginning to sound like Everbright).
The gene pool from which to choose is massively bigger then but is it any better? What about agents bringing players to the attention of clubs, how much importance does that have today and how much of the statistical analysis is abandoned if the agent is doing his job effectively?!
There's a whole industry that has been built up in order to successfully sign the correct players that's for sure. Wonder how many clubs have seen an improvement in their league positions over their historical average as a result of this though?
Maybe just a case of keeping up with the Jonses. Evolve in order to send still.


There are a fair few clubs who have massively improved their standings and gone up leagues by using best practice processes - google is your best friend here! As for the Cobblers, I'd be very surprised if we are even remotely close to using best practice. From the sounds of Foyle's interviews upon joining it doesn't sound like he was awfully keen on identifying players using data. Doesn't necessarily mean that our new signings won't be good but it certainly doesn't tie up with the soundbites KT was making about a new approach.

One last point on your comment "The gene pool from which to choose is massively bigger then but is it any better?" - I would argue that it doesn't necessarily make the pool of players all that much bigger. We would still only be considering players from divisions with similar/lower wage budgets and a similar/slightly lower standard, in the UK. That leaves League 1/League 2/National Leagues/SPL, the same as where we currently sign players from. What it DOES give you though is as I described in my previous post - the ability to use data points to make sure that the statistical counts of instances (random examples include: completed passes of a distance of over 30 yards, duels won in attacking third of the pitch, distance covered in final 10 mins of a game etc.) matches the scouts / managers' opinion of a player's strengths, thus removing elements of subjectivity. These are available on the tools as ranked against the other players in the league and some tools such as Smarterscout even have a weighting system based on league strength so they can be accurately compared to players in your own clubs division!
Of course these could be used in the wrong way, but you have to trust in the professional's ability given that it is their career and they will have a far greater understanding of applied use of statistics in football recruitment than you or I; particularly as if they sign more duds than successes they are likely to be let go!
At the end of the day the manager will almost always (depending on the structure at the club) have the final say on whether or not to try to sign a player but its the quality of the information fed to him from the analyst/scouting team that could make a difference between signing better players or not.
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« Reply #1876 on: July 19, 2021, 15:33:38 pm »

You could also consider Rotherham, Barnsley, Millwall and Peterborough as punching above their weight. In the lower Divisions certainly Cambridge, Cheltenham, Morecombe,Crewe,  Fleetwood, Shrewsbury and even Lincoln. Lower still the list gets longer for instance Colchester who survive on poor league gates compared with NTFC. Most of these Clubs will find their true level soon enough. The standout Club is Stanley so perhaps their methods might be worth analysing. Perhaps it is their judicial use of loan players from nearby clubs?

Some good examples!
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« Reply #1877 on: July 19, 2021, 16:00:46 pm »

Great post Everbrite - Don't say that very often  Grin

As I posted on the finance thread, it's often money and choice. A player that ticks the data boxes etc has choices, why come here to NTFC?

Well I suspect we pay well, too well, why? because we have such little else to offer a player (and his agent)

That then means the pool of players in smaller and might explain why we have taken some many gambles on injured or problem players.

Every season for the last 15 years owners have said we have a very competitive budget but it doesn't show in the players performances (or their star status - except Van Veen of course  Grin)

So I get that for a lot of clubs / times it is a 'luck' thing, a bunch of random (excuse the pun) players gel into a team, get on a roll and suddenly the team are doing really well. No better example than the Wilder winning season, no-one expected us to do that well, it was sparked by Ricky Holmes having the best 6 months I have ever seen in almost 40 years of watching NTFC. After winning by 13 points, I think only Ricky was actually sold and even he never performed anywhere near that level again. (I know a few loan players played higher in following seasons).

It is a great example of how team spirit, community and having something to fight for created that amazing season. Personalities, off and on the pitch are so so important. Moneyball data might have been at play but it was a set of circumstances over player recruitment for me.
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« Reply #1878 on: July 19, 2021, 16:20:08 pm »

Great post Everbrite - Don't say that very often  Grin

As I posted on the finance thread, it's often money and choice. A player that ticks the data boxes etc has choices, why come here to NTFC?

Well I suspect we pay well, too well, why? because we have such little else to offer a player (and his agent)

That then means the pool of players in smaller and might explain why we have taken some many gambles on injured or problem players.

Every season for the last 15 years owners have said we have a very competitive budget but it doesn't show in the players performances (or their star status - except Van Veen of course  Grin)

So I get that for a lot of clubs / times it is a 'luck' thing, a bunch of random (excuse the pun) players gel into a team, get on a roll and suddenly the team are doing really well. No better example than the Wilder winning season, no-one expected us to do that well, it was sparked by Ricky Holmes having the best 6 months I have ever seen in almost 40 years of watching NTFC. After winning by 13 points, I think only Ricky was actually sold and even he never performed anywhere near that level again. (I know a few loan players played higher in following seasons).

It is a great example of how team spirit, community and having something to fight for created that amazing season. Personalities, off and on the pitch are so so important. Moneyball data might have been at play but it was a set of circumstances over player recruitment for me.
I’d pretty much agree with that, it’s the unpredictability of sport. All you can do is stack the odds in your favour, but there are absolutely never any guarantees.
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« Reply #1879 on: July 19, 2021, 16:55:30 pm »

Why would anyone choose NTFC?  Its bothered me many times, what do we offer that other clubs don't have.  We don't have the cash to pump their pockets, the facilities to turn their head, the trainers to push on their career etc.  Maybe we ought to turn our attention to other ways of persuasion? 

The only thing I can come up with - is maybe we use our connection with University of Northampton - free or part funded part time course whilst at the club, and then we use our location.  - it maybe would help if we say we'll make it easy for you to start your education, and it would be a great base for you (pushing the local motorway connections) - if you decide to move on.

Apart from that I've got nothing, why does any player choose any club?  There are an awful lot of clubs which are very similar and Northampton is a bit of an identikit club.
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