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Data Based Approach

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Jim Hall Fixit
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« on: May 18, 2021, 06:31:16 am »

https://www.northamptonchron.co.uk/sport/football/cobblers-player-ratings-for-the-season-who-had-the-highest-average-rating-and-who-won-the-most-star-man-awards-3239266

So the club say they want to adopt a data based approach to player development and procurement??

This simple list, although not very objectively based, shows the man that for a long time was the first name on the team sheet at rock bottom with an average (yes average!) of 6 out of 10.

I’m all for data driven but if everything is pointing to a conclusion you really ignore it at your peril.
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Deepcut Cobbler
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« Reply #1 on: May 18, 2021, 06:51:22 am »

Which one are you talking about?
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Winslow Lee
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« Reply #2 on: May 18, 2021, 07:22:37 am »


This simple list, although not very objectively based, shows the man that for a long time was the first name on the team sheet at rock bottom with an average (yes average!) of 6 out of 10.


One of KC’s top targets too! in Edmondson, though Rose another seemingly perpetual starter only a few places above him.
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« Reply #3 on: May 18, 2021, 07:27:38 am »

https://www.northamptonchron.co.uk/sport/football/cobblers-player-ratings-for-the-season-who-had-the-highest-average-rating-and-who-won-the-most-star-man-awards-3239266

So the club say they want to adopt a data based approach to player development and procurement??

This simple list, although not very objectively based, shows the man that for a long time was the first name on the team sheet at rock bottom with an average (yes average!) of 6 out of 10.

I’m all for data driven but if everything is pointing to a conclusion you really ignore it at your peril.
That’s not data in the Chron that’s peoples opinions. Completely different
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« Reply #4 on: May 18, 2021, 07:41:10 am »

That’s not data in the Chron that’s peoples opinions. Completely different

It's not even people's opinions, it's James Henaghans opinion from his post match subjective assessments.  Wink
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Jim Hall Fixit
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« Reply #5 on: May 18, 2021, 07:57:30 am »

Which one are you talking about?

The one at 25th with a score of 6 - Edmundson.
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Jim Hall Fixit
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« Reply #6 on: May 18, 2021, 08:01:10 am »

It's not even people's opinions, it's James Henaghans opinion from his post match subjective assessments.  Wink

Fair point, but give the lad credit, he can’t be that far out can he - week in week out? Generally speaking I pretty much agreed with most of his scorings. My point, not very well made, is unless you consider Mr H is on a different planet every week ... what was the data that put Edmundson in the team week after week ?
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« Reply #7 on: May 18, 2021, 08:05:49 am »

They didnt use data last year - they are going to use it more moving forwards.

the team wasnt picked based on C&E ratings!

it doesnt tell us anything we didnt know, as a team we werent good enough, as individuals that majority of them werent / arent good enough
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« Reply #8 on: May 18, 2021, 08:10:38 am »

Fair point, but give the lad credit, he can’t be that far out can he - week in week out? Generally speaking I pretty much agreed with most of his scorings. My point, not very well made, is unless you consider Mr H is on a different planet every week ... what was the data that put Edmundson in the team week after week ?

Leeds will sell/give Edmundson to P@@h and he'll score a hatfull of goals before being sold for £10m+.  We all know it's going to happen.  Grin
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« Reply #9 on: May 18, 2021, 09:13:22 am »

Leeds will sell/give Edmundson to P@@h and he'll score a hatfull of goals before being sold for Ł10m+.  We all know it's going to happen.  Grin
Grin You just know that’s going to happen Again!
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Rule Britannia
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« Reply #10 on: May 18, 2021, 11:13:57 am »

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/newsbeat-55816277

Data Base on the cheep.
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« Reply #11 on: May 18, 2021, 12:37:43 pm »



I have the (mis)fortune of working with databases all day and providing reporting/stats/data to .

Which means I have heard business's claim to aim to be, or actively be data driven in their decision making. So, when that remark was made i have to admit i chuckled somewhat. There's usually a huge gulf between what is said and what actually is done. And sadly thats usually a leadership issue, you could have the best analyst's in the world with the cleanest data, but if the top table don't utilise it then it's utterly worthless.

Now whilst the club would be foolish to give away what they are trying to do datawise, as far as i can tell that we have but a single analyst, and setting up and sorting something like this out from scratch is usually more than one individual can take on top of there day job. So without seeing anything about hiring more bodies to really interrogate data and build reporting and algorithms I am tempted to say this is a bit of a placating statement to sound modern.

Barnsley have proved this approach can work very well in football, admittedly they happen to have Billy Beane himself as a part owner so that's not entirely a surprise. But done well this could really help the club punch above it's weight whilst keeping the finances in good shape.

I genuinely hope my skepticism is misplaced as i'd really like to see us follow through on this as it really could benefit the club in the long term.
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Manwork04
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« Reply #12 on: May 18, 2021, 12:38:33 pm »

Like a budgerigar ?
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« Reply #13 on: May 18, 2021, 12:42:06 pm »


I have the (mis)fortune of working with databases all day and providing reporting/stats/data to .

Which means I have heard business's claim to aim to be, or actively be data driven in their decision making. So, when that remark was made i have to admit i chuckled somewhat. There's usually a huge gulf between what is said and what actually is done. And sadly thats usually a leadership issue, you could have the best analyst's in the world with the cleanest data, but if the top table don't utilise it then it's utterly worthless.

Now whilst the club would be foolish to give away what they are trying to do datawise, as far as i can tell that we have but a single analyst, and setting up and sorting something like this out from scratch is usually more than one individual can take on top of there day job. So without seeing anything about hiring more bodies to really interrogate data and build reporting and algorithms I am tempted to say this is a bit of a placating statement to sound modern.

Barnsley have proved this approach can work very well in football, admittedly they happen to have Billy Beane himself as a part owner so that's not entirely a surprise. But done well this could really help the club punch above it's weight whilst keeping the finances in good shape.

I genuinely hope my skepticism is misplaced as i'd really like to see us follow through on this as it really could benefit the club in the long term.
Have you heard of the following, Ai, machine learning, anomaly detection?
These things stop the need for data analysis which is subjective.
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« Reply #14 on: May 18, 2021, 12:57:25 pm »

AI and Machine Learning both need a humans to create, train and maintain. Infact there is inherant bias in machine learning if training data for a model not carefully selected for the appropriate task. Plus all models are wrong, some just happen to be useful.
Humans need to be continually involved as nothing is static, and the people with those exact skills are not cheap. AI and machine learning are incredibly frustrating as whilst they have some incredible uses thet are far from perfect. Just throwing out buzz words means nothing. They're far from simple things to create well.
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Gen.Disorda
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« Reply #15 on: May 18, 2021, 12:57:56 pm »

Data is obtained from companies such as opta stats. The club would simply be agreeing KPIs for particular positions and using the results to vet transfer targets.
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BackOfTheNet
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« Reply #16 on: May 18, 2021, 14:20:42 pm »

Data is obtained from companies such as opta stats. The club would simply be agreeing KPIs for particular positions and using the results to vet transfer targets.

I would expect this to be the case. A subscription to an existing service would be far more sensible than trying to build your own model from scratch, as that's a huge undertaking that would, frankly, be beyond our means. Of course, that doesn't afford you a competitive advantage as you only have access to the same pool of data as every other subscriber, but that's the trade-off you always have to make in a buy vs build selection process.
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« Reply #17 on: May 18, 2021, 14:27:04 pm »

Have you heard of the following, Ai, machine learning, anomaly detection?
These things stop the need for data analysis which is subjective.

Forgive me for saying this but this is a remarkably arrogant question to ask someone in this field given that you seemingly have back-of-the-fag-packet knowledge of the topics listed?

Like Manbearpig I also work in a data focused role - including using machine learning techniques to build models for either predictions or decision making - and their most recent reply is a very good explanation for you about what machine learning and AI are actually used for. As Gen Disorda has also said it is highly unlikely that a football club (certainly in l2) would actually have need for someone to build statistical models, rather it would be someone using analytical tools such as Wyscout, Opta, Statsbomb etc to carry out decriptive statistics and then present it to the head of recruitment or the first team manager.

As for "These things stop the need for data analysis which is subjective"... Well, often a data analyst / scientist / machine learning engineer will carry out exploratory data analysis first before model building but yes it is not a necessity. However to suggest that machine learning is not subjective is wrong. 'Machine learning' is just another way of saying supervised learning - because it requires someone to build, monitor and prune a model. Depending on how complex and overarching model can be it can become incredibly difficult to know if your model is accurate or not as there is no set way of knowing.

If you want to learn more about it in a simple way I suggest googling 'overfitting' in regards to classification and regression models. If you want to learn why it can be so complicated then try googling 'naive bayes' or 'multiple linear regression'  Grin
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« Reply #18 on: May 18, 2021, 14:33:22 pm »

Here’s one I made earlier the last time in was in Walldorf.

https://www.sap.com/uk/products/sports-one.html

Fag packet indeed. 😂
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« Reply #19 on: May 18, 2021, 14:37:52 pm »

Here’s one I made earlier the last time in was in Walldorf.

https://www.sap.com/uk/products/sports-one.html

Fag packet indeed. 😂

Well colour me shocked. Again you'll have to forgive me for saying this, but your initial reply to Manbearpig hardly demonstrated any expertise.
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