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Data Based Approach

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Zen Master
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« Reply #40 on: May 19, 2021, 12:46:41 pm »



https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/newsbeat-55816277
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« Reply #41 on: May 19, 2021, 12:54:56 pm »

I am more of a binary advocate. Anything subjective for me brings in an element of error. For the subjective content to be without unconscious bias the same person would have to assess every player in the league. For me it is like reading the form book and then chosing a horse based on it's name.

Download the pdf file, it's a very interesting read.
Haha you’ve just described my betting techniques in a nutshell.
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« Reply #42 on: May 19, 2021, 13:46:28 pm »

Im a huge 'fan' of this approach with my own business. For example I know all kinds of things from our last 8 years in terms of sales, conversations, calls needed to make to generate a 'lead', all sorts of things. At the end of the day, in my book most things in life is a numbers game, however rarely do I meet someone who is as obsessive as me when it comes to excel spreadsheets!  Grin

BUT. When it comes to football I am not convinced. If a player is playing in a poor team, then is data is going to be hugely detrimentally effected. Likewise, the style of the team he is playing in could well have a negative impact. People have said Harry Kane would barely score for us last season because we didn't create chances. Subjective, again...

You've then got the issue of players adapting to different leagues. I am not going to use any one player as an example to back up my theory, because it would contradict to my original point, its all a numbers game. So you've got to be generalist with the approach. So I will say this, that many players improve for no specific known reason when they go up a division or in many cases, get worse when they go down a division. Happens all the time.

Data also doesn't factor in personalities, motivation, age deprivation or indeed improvement with age/experience. In football, many players peak at 27/28 but a huge amount peak earlier or in some cases later. Some players attributes will enable them to to be a 'surprise factor' in their early years but once they become more known, they become easier to suffocate out of games even though in theory they are getting coached more, improving their technique, becoming more physically suited to professional football etc.

Of course as has been mentioned, these stats/data is available to anyone who subscribes. So the same lists of players are on all the clubs lists who use this method to recruit, they therefore become more in demand, more expensive etc than perhaps someone down the list who maybe has the one single significant attribute that would help a particularly team. But of course that attribute may well be hidden because of who he plays for, that they don't play to his strengths. How many times have we heard in debate, that a manager doesn't play to his teams strengths?!!

Id much prefer a good judge of a player because they've seen him play regularly, be in charge of our recruitment than any over reliance on using so called data.

So in summary, and for anyone whose been so bored they've read all my post!! Subscribe to a standard package which covers as many players as possible, and refer to it when we think we've found 'a good 'un'. If the data doesn't back up the initial positive views of said player, then dig a fair bit deeper before committing to that signing.

Bonjour!!
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« Reply #43 on: May 19, 2021, 14:13:32 pm »

How would a binary decision making based on player data work? If it was with decision trees - ie at each stage if the player passes the yes / no for fulfilling a certain criteria - then the parameters would still be decided by someone. You have to trust the person carrying out the analysis and their abilities to make fair reflections.

Also I believe football data analysts do indeed assess players against others playing in the same position across the league - see a nice example from twitter here https://twitter.com/HenshawAnalysis/status/1394936830886285313. I think the tools like Wyscout probably provide them as part of the package. Whilst we don't seem to have a full-time recruitment data person I'd be interested to know if the club had a paid subscription to something like Wyscout - questions would surely need asking if not!

A binary decision would be where the statistcal analysis shows one player is better than the other eg. for a striker shots at goal/shots on target percentage. I suppose you could argue that even that has a certain amount of subjectivity because some shots are easier than others.
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« Reply #44 on: May 19, 2021, 14:16:33 pm »

Im a huge 'fan' of this approach with my own business. For example I know all kinds of things from our last 8 years in terms of sales, conversations, calls needed to make to generate a 'lead', all sorts of things. At the end of the day, in my book most things in life is a numbers game, however rarely do I meet someone who is as obsessive as me when it comes to excel spreadsheets!  Grin


Nothing wrong with a good old Excel spreadsheet, especially when you consider the MS Access is only Excel on steroids.
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« Reply #45 on: May 19, 2021, 15:16:20 pm »

MS Access is only Excel on steroids.

Bleurgh!! I hate Access with a passion. Your heart sinks whenever you move to a new company and someone proudly shows you this brilliant shadow IT application they've built using Access... Why anyone would choose to pay for MS Access when any number of open source databases are available, or even the freebie Express editions of SQL Server or Oracle if you aren't going to be holding much data.
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« Reply #46 on: May 19, 2021, 15:38:07 pm »

Can we move this bunch of SAPs to another section before they start knocking one off over their ZX81’s? Stick a macro in it chaps. You’ve missed the bit….”Do they cost more than £300 a week?”  Grin Tongue
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« Reply #47 on: May 19, 2021, 15:51:11 pm »

Can we move this bunch of SAPs to another section before they start knocking one off over their ZX81’s? Stick a macro in it chaps. You’ve missed the bit….”Do they cost more than £300 a week?”  Grin Tongue

I never had a ZX81, I'm afraid. I went straight from a Vic20 to an Amiga...
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« Reply #48 on: May 19, 2021, 16:27:25 pm »

Can we move this bunch of SAPs to another section before they start knocking one off over their ZX81’s? Stick a macro in it chaps. You’ve missed the bit….”Do they cost more than £300 a week?”  Grin Tongue

 Grin Grin Grin
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« Reply #49 on: May 19, 2021, 21:28:59 pm »

Id much prefer a good judge of a player because they've seen him play regularly, be in charge of our recruitment than any over reliance on using so called data.
I agee.
I always thought that the use of data and statistics was to confirm or strengthen an argument for or against something, rather then as a problem solving tool in itself?
For example, medically a doctor will ( or should) use laboratory tests to confirm and support his clinical diagnosis, not to diagnose all that condition in the first place. Similarly, players should be bought to the attention of interested clubs by scouts, with the use of data then used to support a recomendation to move on that player. If players are bought and sold chiefly by virtue of their standings in a league table comparative to others, with only a passing nod towards the quality of that player clubs are surely coming at it the wrong way around?
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« Reply #50 on: May 19, 2021, 21:42:33 pm »

I agee.
I always thought that the use of data and statistics was to confirm or strengthen an argument for or against something, rather then as a problem solving tool in itself?
For example, medically a doctor will ( or should) use laboratory tests to confirm and support his clinical diagnosis, not to diagnose all that condition in the first place. Similarly, players should be bought to the attention of interested clubs by scouts, with the use of data then used to support a recomendation to move on that player. If players are bought and sold chiefly by virtue of their standings in a league table comparative to others, with only a passing nod towards the quality of that player clubs are surely coming at it the wrong way around?

As far as I know it is used for what you say above (highlighted in bold).

I listened to a podcast episode a while back with a football data recruitment analyst and they said that whilst it is used for identifying players, a club would never sign a player based on above average statistical performance alone and they will always extensively watch the player via match replays and then ensure to watch them in person on at least a few occasions.

It's not a case of either 'old school scouting' (watching players in person) or nerds on spreadsheets. Rather it's recruitment analysts using the data to identify players performing well in leagues that might have a lower reputation where clubs might not be able to command high fees for players (e.g. Championship clubs shopping in Ligue 2 in France), and then working with the head scouts / regional lead etc. to decide which players fit the brief for what the club needs / manager wants. Once the list is narrowed down they then watch the players in more detail to see if the performances match what the numbers say about them.

Think of it like a sifting process I guess!
« Last Edit: May 19, 2021, 21:45:08 pm by OCoole » Report Spam   Logged
Steve Massive Massey
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« Reply #51 on: May 20, 2021, 05:42:17 am »

Please can someone clear this up?

Is this pronounced Day-ta or Dar-ta?
Similarly is it Pass-ta or Pars-ta
How about Pass-tee or Pars-tee.
Don’t bother with Pastry, there’s only one way to say it apparently?


I can conclusively clear this bit up as outside Pinocchios on the Welly road, the sign said..

Donta walka pasta.

As for pasties, if you have ever worked in Cornwall, mess rooms or canteens are called crib rooms. When I was first asked "are you coming for crib?" I thought great, we're on for a game of cards, sadly no cards only lunch!
The crib is the crimped edge of the pasty and this is what they would hold when eating their pasty in the mine with dirty hands, they would then throw the crib on the floor as an offering for good luck, hence the room where they used for eat was full of "cribs."

Bit of useless trivia for all you planning to go to Cornwall instead of Thailand this summer.  Cry
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« Reply #52 on: May 20, 2021, 09:17:27 am »

I agee.
I always thought that the use of data and statistics was to confirm or strengthen an argument for or against something, rather then as a problem solving tool in itself?
For example, medically a doctor will ( or should) use laboratory tests to confirm and support his clinical diagnosis, not to diagnose all that condition in the first place. Similarly, players should be bought to the attention of interested clubs by scouts, with the use of data then used to support a recomendation to move on that player. If players are bought and sold chiefly by virtue of their standings in a league table comparative to others, with only a passing nod towards the quality of that player clubs are surely coming at it the wrong way around?


It is easy to agree with most of this but not sure a Doctor would need a laboratory test to confirm his diagnosis when his training and knowledge would be sufficient for some cases. All recommended players should be subject to data analysis. How would data be useful when we signed Morton for example? Another puzzle is Oliver! Even Langmead for a time looked a disaster. Again gut feeling and game knowledge is essential.Some players might meet all the relevant data criteria but have some personal character traits. A professional scout fully aware of his Clubs limitations may still be the best route to take when recruiting players?
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« Reply #53 on: May 20, 2021, 11:33:55 am »

I can conclusively clear this bit up as outside Pinocchios on the Welly road, the sign said..
Donta walka pasta.
As for pasties, if you have ever worked in Cornwall, mess rooms or canteens are called crib rooms. When I was first asked "are you coming for crib?" I thought great, we're on for a game of cards, sadly no cards only lunch!
The crib is the crimped edge of the pasty and this is what they would hold when eating their pasty in the mine with dirty hands, they would then throw the crib on the floor as an offering for good luck, hence the room where they used for eat was full of "cribs."

Bit of useless trivia for all you planning to go to Cornwall instead of Thailand this summer.  Cry
I wish we could go to Pinocchios this summer, lovely pizza's  Smiley
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Steve Massive Massey
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« Reply #54 on: May 20, 2021, 14:40:37 pm »

I wish we could go to Pinocchios this summer, lovely pizza's  Smiley

Officially the finest pizzas ever produced. The spaghetti bolognese with extra parmesan, amazing.
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« Reply #55 on: May 20, 2021, 18:10:29 pm »

Officially the finest pizzas ever produced. The spaghetti bolognese with extra parmesan, amazing.

I don't live in Northampton but from the rave reviews above I thought I'd make a note to try it the next time I'm up  ...... but according to Google Maps it's permanently closed ??
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« Reply #56 on: May 20, 2021, 18:42:50 pm »

I don't live in Northampton but from the rave reviews above I thought I'd make a note to try it the next time I'm up  ...... but according to Google Maps it's permanently closed ??

Long gone but Midwest burgers are still trading a few doors up.
Best pizza (hands down) is currently being served up by Hogs and Hops in Daventry. AMAZING!
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« Reply #57 on: May 20, 2021, 20:57:26 pm »

Long gone but Midwest burgers are still trading a few doors up.
Best pizza (hands down) is currently being served up by Hogs and Hops in Daventry. AMAZING!

I appreciate the heads up  Smiley

When I was a student at Nene College in the early '80s there was a takeaway on the Kettering Road called "Paul's" which was owned and run by a Greek guy. He did the biggest t-bone steak you've ever seen (in the States they'd call it a Tomahawk) with chips and a whole fried onion, all served on a massive cardboard plate for £2.50. Always remember rolling in there in the early hours after a good session.
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« Reply #58 on: May 20, 2021, 22:56:44 pm »

I appreciate the heads up  Smiley

When I was a student at Nene College in the early '80s there was a takeaway on the Kettering Road called "Paul's" which was owned and run by a Greek guy. He did the biggest t-bone steak you've ever seen (in the States they'd call it a Tomahawk) with chips and a whole fried onion, all served on a massive cardboard plate for £2.50. Always remember rolling in there in the early hours after a good session.
Mate, now you’re talking. Who remembers the Mont Parnasse on Abington Square? Going for a “full Monty” at 2.30am and finally get a table only to be woken up face down in some onion rings at 3am. What was the name of the guys wife who waited the tables, great food and service but took no crap from the highly refreshed great unwashed. Loved the place, what an absolute gold mine.
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« Reply #59 on: May 21, 2021, 19:16:22 pm »

My take on data, for what it's worth:

A lot of lower league managers like Curle still recruit in a very subjective, 'gut instinct' way based on watching a player a few times and getting a sense of their 'character'.

As I've said before, the signing of Harry Smith is a prime example of why this approach can go wrong. Curle sees him have a dominant performance against us, takes in his 6ft 5' height and build, looks at his 9 goals for struggling Macclesfield and concludes that he's the answer to our target man problem. Perhaps, if was feeling particularly rigorous, he got Tracey to go scout him a couple of times and those scouting missions happened to coincide with Harry scoring.

If we had a decent data analyst I don't think we would have signed him. Why? Because the data would have shown a low number of 'aerial duals' won, a low hold-up to lay-off ratio and a low percentage of goals scored from crosses (our primary means of creating chances at the time). The chariman/D.O.F could then quite reasonably have vetoed the transfer and guided Curle to other targets due to the lack of a convincing data-based case for his recruitment.

Data-based recruitment isn't full-proof by any means but there's a reason why all the top clubs invest in it: it stops managers being blinded by subjective judgements.






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